The Ambiguous Nature of Ambiguity and Crime Control

As it has been truly observed, that most men are apt to confide in their supposed good fortune and to miscalculate as to the number of prizes which there are in the lottery of life, so are those dissolute and thoughtless men, whose evil dispositions penal laws are most necessary to repress, much too prone to deceive themselves in their speculations upon what I am afraid they accustom themselves to consider as the lottery of justice.

Samuel Romilly

A widely-held approach to criminal law suggests that its main purpose is to deter offenders from committing crimes. According to this approach, when society is indifferent between several modes of law enforcement, or between rules that govern criminal proceedings, it should pick those most detested by potential criminals. Alternatively, if different crime control methods lead to the same level of deterrence, society is free to pick the one it prefers. Thus, for example, if different combinations of the probability of detection, prosecution, conviction, and penalty lead to the same crime rate, and no other issues are of concern, society should pick the least expensive option, according to the costs incurred in each stage of the criminal process.

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A Liberal Challenge to Behavioral Economics: The Case of Probability

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